GEOPOLITICS OF ETHIOPIA

What happens when a peace agreement stops a war but fails to resolve the conflicts that caused it?

Ethiopia has reached another historic crossroads. After the devastating Tigray War of 2020-2022, the Pretoria Agreement brought an end to large-scale fighting and raised hopes for lasting peace. Yet territorial disputes, political divisions, regional military forces, tensions between the federal government and the regions, and the increasingly fragile relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea have remained unresolved.

Now, with war returning to northern Ethiopia in 2026, the possibility of renewed conflict raises a much larger question: can Ethiopia remain united without suppressing the diversity that defines it?

Ethiopia: Between Peace and Fragmentation examines the forces that have brought the country back to the brink of war. It explores the confrontation between the federal government and the TPLF, the continuing tensions in Tigray, Amhara, and Afar, the unresolved territorial disputes, the role of Eritrea, and the growing regional dimension of the crisis.

But this book is not only about war.

It is also about what comes after war.

What would it take to rebuild Tigray, Amhara, and Afar? Can former combatants be reintegrated? Can displaced communities return home? Can Ethiopia create institutions strong enough to resolve political and territorial disputes without resorting to force? And can a federal system based on profound regional diversity provide a viable framework for national unity?

The book explores two possible paths.

One leads toward reconstruction, political reform, reconciliation, and a stronger federal system capable of accommodating regional autonomy while preserving national unity.

The other leads toward progressive fragmentation, the militarization of regional politics, weakening federal authority, and the possibility that Ethiopia could gradually lose control over parts of its territory without ever formally disappearing as a state.

At the heart of the book lies a fundamental question:

Can Ethiopia build a political system in which Tigray, Amhara, Afar, Oromia, Somali, and the country's other regions can coexist within a single state without turning every struggle for power into another war?

The answer will not be determined solely on the battlefield.

It will be determined by the institutions Ethiopia builds after the guns fall silent.

This book examines Ethiopia at a decisive moment in its history-a country caught between peace and fragmentation, between regional autonomy and central authority, between the memory of past wars and the possibility of a different future.

Because avoiding the next war will require more than another ceasefire.

It will require building a peace strong enough to make the next war unnecessary.